Real Estate Blog
Giving the lowdown on issues effecting Real Estate finance.

Housing CostsIn the last post we mentioned the Center For Public Integrity’s research into the top firms who caused the housing crisis. One of their graphs brings new questions to light.

When using the label “subprime” the typical stigma is one of a bad credit customer who couldn’t get a loan at the bank so they went to a lender who charged higher interest rates to make the loan. (insert loan shark jokes here…) The main issue this raises is this: while subprime lenders did make some bad loans, the graph used shows something different.

The graph shows that people were being allowed to buy more home on the same income they had in the past. Subprime lending did allow a higher debt level than prime lending had in the past, and this required customers to live on a much tighter budget than previous generations had.

Another and perhaps worse trend occuring in the market was the main stream introduction of ‘pick-a-payment’ loans which allowed customers to choose loans that had an adjustable interest rate, a teaser rate below the actual rate allowing customers to pay less than the monthly payment, and the unpaid interest was added to the loan balance, and this rate could adjust monthly.

These loans had historically been granted to sophisticated customers who understood all the dynamics of the loan, and who could well afford it. The loan qualifications became looser and looser as time went on eventually allowing no down payments, stated income, and finally allowing the borrowers to qualify on the teaser rate vs. the actual interest rate.

These loans went main stream and the volume of these loans rivaled if not exceeded the volume of subprime loans.

Just one more example of how crazy the world had become at the height of the housing bubble!


A recent study on the primary lenders of the housing meltdown has been published by The Center for Public Integrity. On their website www.publicintegrity.org they list the top 25 subprime lenders in the nation by loan volume. The main article can be found here.

What I found interesting was they method they used to define sub-prime, it was based on the interest rate spread vs. the loan qualifications. There is a lot of interesting information available on the web site, however I would like to see default rates as well when blame is being placed for the housing crisis.

Another interesting section of their site has graphs showing the following:

Increasing percentage of income goes to housing.

Total financing of Mortgage-Backed Securities.

Political Contiributions by Securities and Investment Companies.

Political Contributions by Real Estate Companies.

Top Recipients of Securities and Investment Company Contributions.

Top Recipients of Real Estate Company Contributions.

Top Recipients of AIG Contributions in the 2008 Election Cycle.


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The government has kept rates at record lows for quite some time now, and we really haven’t seen much improvement in the housing market. Granted we had to stabilize the banks, and in theory that has been accomplished.

As anyone who has been in the mortgage business for at least 10 years knows, when rates go up, you shift your focus to different mortgage products. I.e. Jumbo loans, stated income loans (that make sense), non-prime loans, etc. These loans are typically not available through Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA.

In normal markets there are plenty of investors willing to make these loans given that they typically generate higher than average returns, however in today’s market, there is such a shortage of available investors that it appears the entire space is vacant.

This could be due to the vilifying of any lender associated with non-prime mortgage lending, or it could be that entities that normally engaged in this type of activity are worried about the increased scrutiny and regulation coming to the industry. One thing that hasn’t changed is the desire to make money, and once rates increase, the ability to make money from mortgage loans will return.

An increase in players in the mortgage market will bring back competition. Competition typically brings new products, and as long as those products are based on performance and repayment, it will bring returns.

This is what will really bring a recovery to the housing market, not low rates that only a select group qualify for.


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A recent video on Fox News discussed the amount of financing now owned or guaranteed by the US Government. Ed Pinto discussed the current financing situation stating that the US Government either guarantees or owns 90% of the residential lending currently occurring.

During the hey-day, the split between GSE and Private financing was estimated at 50/50. Granted it got out of control, but there should be a more even split….

As I sit here speculating, I can’t wonder if part of the lack of outside financing is the record low rates that won’t allow investors to make the returns they would like? As housing has supposedly stabilized, would we see more investors return to mortgage backed securities if the Fed raised rates?

There is a lot more that goes into this, but ROI is a primary concern. If there are better returns elsewhere with less perceived risk, it makes sense that the market would chase returns elsewhere!


The short answer is yes. But there is more to it than that.

We used to get 2-4 letters a week in our neighborhood from Realtors letting us know that they had customers wanting to move in. Then for the past 2 years……. (imagine the sound of crickets here…)

Then last week, we received a letter from an unknown real estate agent, and when we opened it (imagine audio from Handel’s Messiah here) it was one of the aforementioned letters!

Not that we are looking to move, but it got me thinking – Have property values really started to go up? I decided to do a little digging to find out.  The criteria I am looking for to decide if appreciation will occur, is driven by market demand, not by artificial factors, i.e. artificially low mortgage rates.

The items I believe we will need to see to build and sustain a lasting recovery are:
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